Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 142,450
2 Rhode Island 141,545
3 South Dakota 139,387
4 Utah 124,962
5 Tennessee 122,919
6 Arizona 119,454
7 Iowa 116,608
8 Nebraska 114,505
9 Wisconsin 114,490
10 Oklahoma 113,802
11 South Carolina 113,607
12 New Jersey 113,490
13 Arkansas 111,864
14 Delaware 109,114
15 Indiana 108,973
16 Alabama 108,316
17 Kansas 107,432
18 Illinois 107,344
19 New York 106,523
20 Idaho 105,871
21 Florida 105,788
22 Mississippi 105,396
23 Minnesota 104,447
24 Nevada 103,494
25 Montana 102,968
26 Georgia 102,275
27 Wyoming 101,534
28 Massachusetts 101,250
29 Kentucky 101,234
30 Texas 100,614
31 Louisiana 99,567
32 Missouri 98,822
33 Michigan 96,533
34 Connecticut 96,358
35 New Mexico 95,334
36 California 95,163
37 North Carolina 94,517
38 Alaska 93,718
39 Ohio 92,763
40 Pennsylvania 92,145
41 Colorado 91,545
42 West Virginia 87,390
43 Virginia 78,142
44 Maryland 75,027
45 New Hampshire 71,192
46 District of Columbia 68,289
47 Washington 54,850
48 Puerto Rico 52,966
49 Maine 47,766
50 Oregon 45,483
51 Vermont 37,726
52 Hawaii 23,776

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Colorado 198
2 Minnesota 193
3 Maine 184
4 Michigan 184
5 West Virginia 174
6 Delaware 163
7 Florida 147
8 Oregon 140
9 Washington 139
10 Pennsylvania 133
11 Illinois 127
12 Indiana 126
13 Puerto Rico 122
14 New York 121
15 Rhode Island 116
16 New Hampshire 113
17 North Carolina 111
18 Alaska 107
19 Massachusetts 102
20 South Carolina 100
21 Arizona 92
22 New Mexico 90
23 Nevada 86
24 Utah 83
25 Wyoming 81
26 North Dakota 80
27 Ohio 79
28 Vermont 79
29 Louisiana 78
30 Connecticut 77
31 Maryland 75
32 Tennessee 71
33 Wisconsin 68
34 Georgia 64
35 Iowa 64
36 Virginia 64
37 Idaho 63
38 Kentucky 62
39 Montana 61
40 Texas 61
41 Missouri 60
42 Nebraska 59
43 Mississippi 57
44 Oklahoma 56
45 Alabama 52
46 Hawaii 50
47 Arkansas 45
48 New Jersey 42
49 Kansas 39
50 California 37
51 South Dakota 29
52 District of Columbia 27

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,905
2 New York 2,682
3 Massachusetts 2,567
4 Rhode Island 2,539
5 Mississippi 2,430
6 Arizona 2,391
7 Connecticut 2,287
8 Louisiana 2,245
9 South Dakota 2,239
10 Alabama 2,238
11 Pennsylvania 2,077
12 North Dakota 2,006
13 Indiana 1,993
14 New Mexico 1,959
15 Michigan 1,942
16 Illinois 1,940
17 Arkansas 1,909
18 Iowa 1,896
19 South Carolina 1,863
20 Georgia 1,858
21 Nevada 1,787
22 Tennessee 1,783
23 Texas 1,752
24 Kansas 1,736
25 Oklahoma 1,726
26 Delaware 1,685
27 Florida 1,666
28 Ohio 1,662
29 California 1,577
30 District of Columbia 1,572
31 West Virginia 1,522
32 Missouri 1,521
33 Kentucky 1,499
34 Montana 1,489
35 Maryland 1,465
36 Wisconsin 1,314
37 Minnesota 1,298
38 Virginia 1,277
39 Nebraska 1,227
40 Wyoming 1,226
41 North Carolina 1,221
42 Idaho 1,154
43 Colorado 1,127
44 New Hampshire 967
45 Puerto Rico 743
46 Washington 739
47 Utah 694
48 Oregon 604
49 Maine 591
50 Alaska 453
51 Vermont 399
52 Hawaii 342

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Michigan 5
2 Delaware 4
3 Florida 2
4 Kentucky 2
5 California 1
6 Connecticut 1
7 Illinois 1
8 Indiana 1
9 Maryland 1
10 Massachusetts 1
11 New Jersey 1
12 New Mexico 1
13 New York 1
14 Pennsylvania 1
15 Puerto Rico 1
16 South Carolina 1
17 Virginia 1
18 West Virginia 1
19 Wisconsin 1
20 Alabama 0
21 Alaska 0
22 Arizona 0
23 Arkansas 0
24 Colorado 0
25 District of Columbia 0
26 Georgia 0
27 Hawaii 0
28 Idaho 0
29 Iowa 0
30 Kansas 0
31 Louisiana 0
32 Maine 0
33 Minnesota 0
34 Mississippi 0
35 Missouri 0
36 Montana 0
37 Nevada 0
38 New Hampshire 0
39 North Carolina 0
40 North Dakota 0
41 Ohio 0
42 Oklahoma 0
43 Oregon 0
44 Rhode Island 0
45 South Dakota 0
46 Tennessee 0
47 Texas 0
48 Utah 0
49 Vermont 0
50 Washington 0
51 Wyoming 0
52 Nebraska -1

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Chattahoochee Georgia 367,287 1 99
Crowley Colorado 361,162 2 99
Bent Colorado 274,341 3 99
Dewey South Dakota 249,830 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 245,777 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 142,054 187 94
Richland South Carolina 111,976 982 68
York South Carolina 110,919 1024 67
Orange California 85,273 2210 29
Pierce Washington 56,698 2862 8

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Foard Texas 8,658 1 99
Galax city Virginia 8,193 2 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 3 99
Emporia city Virginia 7,856 4 99
Hancock Georgia 7,686 5 99
Orange California 1,577 1821 42
York South Carolina 1,352 2085 33
Davidson Tennessee 1,351 2087 33
Richland South Carolina 1,345 2094 33
Pierce Washington 729 2743 12

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons